With a sparse snowpack promising low river flows, BPA is projecting a $6 million loss for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2010.

Financial forecasts based on a single quarter are highly uncertain, but independent projections of runoff in the Columbia River system are not encouraging. Runoff is the fuel that drives the federal dam generators that produce BPA's electricity.

The National Weather Service's Northwest River Forecast Center forecast issued Jan. 28 estimates a 77.1 million acre-feet of Columbia River January-through-July runoff as traditionally measured at The Dalles, Ore. That is only 72 percent of the 30-year average of 107.3 maf.

If the forecast holds, which seems likely because of an El Niño weather pattern, this would be the lowest runoff since 2001 and 13th lowest since 1928. El Niño is a Pacific Ocean weather pattern that produces warmer and drier winters in the Northwest. A dry 2010 also would mean that runoff in 10 of the last 11 years has been below average.

"Without water, the federal hydro system is like a car with a huge engine but no gas," said Michael Milstein, BPA spokesperson. "There is still time for the snowpack to build. Twice in the last 10 years, we have had 'miracle March' snows that brought the system back from the brink."

The expected lack of water is the sole reason for the negative revenue forecast. BPA's expenses are below start-of-year budgets and the price of the electricity it sells on the surplus market is about what was expected.

The agency will meet with interested parties to discuss its financial forecast at its regular Quarterly Business Review Feb. 2. For more information on the QBR and to see the first Quarter Review, go to http://www.bpa.gov/corporate/Finance/financialOverview.