Models Used for the 2002 Final Power Rate Proposal

Risk Analysis and Mitigation Models
(Treasury Payment Probability Calculation)

(web page posted on May 25 , 2000)

(Click here for information about viewing PDF files.)

Summary: The models described on this page are the ones used by BPA to determine the effects of different risk mitigation measures on its 5-year Treasury Payment Probability.

Contact Person: Jim Sapp, BPA Policy Management and Finance, (503) 230-5144, jcsapp@bpa.gov

Electronic Files Currently Available: [ Notes: Files 1 - 45 have a combined size of approximately 15.8 MB. If you wish to download all of these files, a single compressed (self-extracting) file containing all 45 files (.EXE file, 4.9 MB) is available for quicker downloading. After this file has been downloaded to a folder on a local drive, it can be decompressed by double-clicking on the file. If your web browser is configured to open PDF and/or Excel files within the browser, you can view each individual file below by clicking on the linked file name with your left mouse button. To download an individual file to a local drive, click on the linked file name with your right mouse button and select "Save Target As..."]

1. Guide to the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) Package:
    TPPinfo.pdf (14 kb, posted August 18,1999)

2. ToolKit Model for 2002-2006:
    ToolKit13_022400_Subscription 2.xls (3113 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

3. Documentation for the ToolKit:
    How to Operate ToolKit (4-9-99).pdf (33 kb, posted August 18, 1999)

   Input Files for the ToolKit

4. Prior ToolKit file:
    TK_021100_01Base_wSTREAM_JR.xls (3152 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

5. Inputs to Prior Toolkit:
    MRG_120199_01.xls (1009 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

6. Riskmod output file for full probabilistic runs:
    RM_MIX_merge_022400_Subscription2.xls (3573 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

7. NORM output file for full probabilistic runs:
    NORM_MixProb_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (1117 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

8. The Non-Operating Risk Model (NORM):
    NORM_022300_inputs_99RC_Final.xls (71 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

9. NORM notes:
    Brief_Documentation_of_NORM_(7-16-99 version).pdf (20 kb, updated August 19,1999)

   10 - 27. Set of 18 Riskmod files for examining the impacts of specific F&W alternatives (see How to Operate ToolKit.pdf" for more information). There are 13 F&W alternatives, labeled here Alt1 through Alt13. Five of them (7, 8 , 9, 12, and 13) have both unadjusted and adjusted schedules - these are indicated by "u" or "a" after the number, e.g. Alt7a or Alt13u.
   

10. RM_Alt1_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
11. RM_Alt2_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
12. RM_Alt3_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
13. RM_Alt4_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
14. RM_Alt5_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
15. RM_Alt6_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
16. RM_Alt7u_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
17. RM_Alt7a_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
18. RM_Alt8u_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
19. RM_Alt8a_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
20. RM_Alt9u_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
21. RM_Alt9a_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
22. RM_Alt10_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
23. RM_Alt11_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
24. RM_Alt12u_022400.xls (91 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
25. RM_Alt12a_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
26. RM_Alt13u_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
27. RM_Alt13a_022400.xls (90 kb, posted May 25, 2000)

    28 - 45. Set of 18 NORM files with the BPA Direct Program modeled randomly (uniform distribution from $100M to $179M five-year average cost)
    

28. NORM_Alt1_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
29. NORM_Alt2_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
30. NORM_Alt3_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
31. NORM_Alt4_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
32. NORM_Alt5_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
33. NORM_Alt6_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
34. NORM_Alt7u_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
35. NORM_Alt7a_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
36. NORM_Alt8u_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
37. NORM_Alt8a_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
38. NORM_Alt9u_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
39. NORM_Alt9a_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
40. NORM_Alt10_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
41. NORM_Alt11_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
42. NORM_Alt12u_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
43. NORM_Alt12a_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
44. NORM_Alt13u_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)
45. NORM_Alt13a_022300_outputs_99RC_Final.xls (118 kb, posted May 25, 2000)