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Risk Analysis and Mitigation Models (ratecase/initialproposal) Error processing SSI file
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Models Used for the 2002 Initial Power Rate Proposal

Risk Analysis and Mitigation Models
(Treasury Payment Probability Calculation)

(web page updated on January 20 , 2000)

(Click here for information about viewing PDF files.)

Summary: The models described on this page are the ones used by BPA to determine the effects of different risk mitigation measures on its 5-year Treasury Payment Probability.

Contact Person: Jim Sapp, BPA Policy Management and Finance, (503) 230-5144, jcsapp@bpa.gov

Electronic Files Currently Available: [ Notes: See additional notes below for File #2 and File #64. Files 1 - 63 have a combined size of approximately 15.3 MB. If you wish to download all of these files, a single compressed (self-extracting) file containing all 63 files (.EXE file, 4.5 MB, updated September 13, 1999) is available for quicker downloading. After this file has been downloaded to a folder on a local drive, it can be decompressed by double-clicking on the file. If your web browser is configured to open PDF and/or Excel files within the browser, you can view each individual file below by clicking on the linked file name with your left mouse button. To download an individual file to a local drive, click on the linked file name with your right mouse button and select "Save Target As..."]

  1. Guide to the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) Package:
     TPPinfo.pdf (14 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  2. ToolKit Model for 2002-2006:
     ToolKit12b6_072299_Subscription 2.xls (1032 kb, updated September 13,1999)
    [Note: The previous version of this file (ToolKit12b5_072299_Subscription 2.xls, posted August 18 1999) had a logic error. Although this error had no effect on the analysis done for the Initial Proposal, it will "blow up" if a user tries to model the effects of the Fish Cost Contingency Fund internally.] Jan. 20, 2000 Note: This version of the model has a minor coding error. See Item 64 below for a corrected version of the model.

  3. Documentation for the ToolKit:
     How to Operate ToolKit (4-9-99).pdf (33 kb, posted August 18,1999)

    Input Files for the ToolKit

  4. Prior ToolKit file:
     TK_071499_01Base_wSTREAM.xls (3152 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  5. Inputs to Prior Toolkit:
     MRG_71499_01.xls (997 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  6. Riskmod output file for full probabilistic runs:
     RM_MIX_merge_072299_Subscription 2.xls (3572 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  7. NORM output file for full probabilistic runs:
     NORM_MixProb_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (1117 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  8. The Non-Operating Risk Model (NORM):
     NORM_071699_inputs_99RC_Init.xls (71 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  9. NORM notes:
     Brief_Documentation_of_NORM_(7-16-99 version).pdf (20 kb, updated August 19,1999 at 3 PM)

    Files for examining the impacts of specific F&W alternatives (see How to Operate ToolKit.pdf" for more information) There are 13 F&W alternatives, labeled here Alt1 through Alt13. Five of them (7, 8 , 9, 12, and 13) have both unadjusted and adjusted schedules - these are indicated by "u" or "a" after the number, e.g. Alt7a or Alt13u. 10 - 27. Set of 18 Riskmod file

  10. RM_Alt1_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  11. RM_Alt2_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  12. RM_Alt3_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  13. RM_Alt4_072299.xls (89 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  14. RM_Alt5_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  15. RM_Alt6_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  16. RM_Alt7u_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  17. RM_Alt7a_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  18. RM_Alt8u_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  19. RM_Alt8a_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  20. RM_Alt9u_072299.xls (91 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  21. RM_Alt9a_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  22. RM_Alt10_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  23. RM_Alt11_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  24. RM_Alt12u_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  25. RM_Alt12a_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  26. RM_Alt13u_072299.xls (90 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  27. RM_Alt13a_072299.xls (91 kb, posted August 18,1999)

    28 - 45. Set of 18 NORM files with the BPA Direct Program modeled randomly (uniform distribution from $100M to $179M five-year average cost)

  28. NORM_Alt1_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  29. NORM_Alt2_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  30. NORM_Alt3_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  31. NORM_Alt4_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  32. NORM_Alt5_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  33. NORM_Alt6_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  34. NORM_Alt7u_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  35. NORM_Alt7a_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  36. NORM_Alt8u_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  37. NORM_Alt8a_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  38. NORM_Alt9u_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  39. NORM_Alt9a_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  40. NORM_Alt10_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  41. NORM_Alt11_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  42. NORM_Alt12u_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  43. NORM_Alt12a_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  44. NORM_Alt13u_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  45. NORM_Alt13a_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (118 kb, posted August 18,1999)

    46 - 63. Set of 18 NORM files with the BPA Direct Program modeled as originally described in the Three Sovereign Process (i.e., for all alternatives except #4, the five-year average cost is $179M; for alternative #4 the five-year average cost is $100M)

  46. NORM_Alt1Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, file name corrected August 19,1999 at 4 PM)
  47. NORM_Alt2Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  48. NORM_Alt3Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  49. NORM_Alt4Lo_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, corrected & reposted August 19,1999 at 4 PM)
  50. NORM_Alt5Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  51. NORM_Alt6Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  52. NORM_Alt7uHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  53. NORM_Alt7aHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  54. NORM_Alt8uHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  55. NORM_Alt8aHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  56. NORM_Alt9uHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  57. NORM_Alt9aHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  58. NORM_Alt10Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  59. NORM_Alt11Hi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  60. NORM_Alt12uHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  61. NORM_Alt12aHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  62. NORM_Alt13uHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)
  63. NORM_Alt13aHi_071699_outputs_99RC_Init.xls (112 kb, posted August 18,1999)

  64. ToolKit Model for 2002-2006: ToolKit model with logic corrected as described in Errata to 2002 Initial Power Rate Proposal Volume 1, Documentation to Revenue Requirement StudyWP-02-E-BPA-02A(E3) (PDF version / MSWord version). This replaces the version of ToolKit listed as File #2 above - ToolKit12b6_072299_Subscription 2.xls.
     ToolKit13.xls (1059 kb, posted January 20, 2000)

Web page content provided by Greg Gustafson, gcgustafson@bpa.gov
Web page updated by Grant Vincent, gwvincent@bpa.gov

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