Models Used for the 2002 Supplemental Power Rate Proposal

Risk Analysis and Mitigation Models
(Treasury Payment Probability Calculation)

(web page updated on March 8 , 2001)

(Click here for information about viewing PDF files.)


Summary: The models available on this page are the latest ones used by BPA to determine the effects of different risk mitigation measures on its 5-year Treasury Payment Probability (TPP). [Note: Packages 1 and 2 below were updated on March 8th to fix an error affecting the “No Slice” cases in the Slice Cost Shift Analysis in BPA’s Supplemental Proposal, and in the Slice Cost Shift Analysis (LB CRAC allocated by MW per Customer Proposal) that BPA distributed at a rate case workshop on Feb 22nd.]

Contact Person: Byrne Lovell, BPA Strategic Planning, (503) 230-3930, belovell@bpa.gov

Electronic Files Currently Available: There are currently a total of 39 spreadsheet (.xls) files available with a combined size of approximately 72 MB. These files have been packaged into six compressed (self-extracting) files for quicker downloading. It is recommended that these compressed (.exe) file packages be downloaded to the same folder on a local drive. After downloading, decompress the file packages by double-clicking each package. To ensure proper functioning of the models, keep all 39 uncompressed spreadsheet files in the same folder. See "About These Files" (PDF, 10 kb) for additional information about using these models.

  1. TPP_Package_1_of_6.exe (2 summary files updated on March 8, 2001)
    (10 files, 1.9 MB compressed, 6.9 MB uncompressed)
    This package contains the "About These Files" (PDF) document and 9 miscellaneous input and summary spreadsheet files (Prior ToolKit, NORM, STREAM, etc.). If you wish to only download the files updated on March 8th, here are links to the 2 "fixed" summary files:
       SummaryFixed_of_12 AlloMW_Cost_Shift_runs.xls (29 kb, posted March 8, 2001)
       SummaryFixed_of_12 AlloRev_Cost_Shift_runs.xls (28 kb, posted March 8, 2001)

  2. TPP_Package 2_of_6.exe (all 6 files updated on March 8, 2001)
    (6 XLS files, 3.2 MB compressed, 14.7 MB uncompressed)
    Package of ToolKit "S0Mod2_#Mkt" (No Slice) files.

  3. TPP_Package 3_of_6.exe (posted on February 23, 2001)
    (6 XLS files, 3.2 MB compressed, 14.7 MB uncompressed)
    Package of ToolKit "S2000_#Mkt" (with Slice, BPA proposed allocation of LB CRAC) files.

  4. TPP_Package 4_of_6.exe (posted on February 23, 2001)
    (6 XLS files, 3.2 MB compressed, 14.7 MB uncompressed)
    Package of ToolKit "S2000_AlloMW_#Mkt" (with Slice, Customer proposed allocation of LB CRAC) files.

  5. TPP_Package 5_of_6.exe (posted on February 23, 2001)
    (6 XLS files, 3.8 MB compressed, 11.0 MB uncompressed)
    Package of Risk Mod "S0" (No Slice) files.

  6. TPP_Package 6_of_6.exe (posted on February 23, 2001)
    (6 XLS files, 4.1 MB compressed, 11.5 MB uncompressed)
    Package of Risk Mod "S2000" (with 2000 MW of Slice) files.


Web page content provided by Gabrielle Foulkes, gffoulkes@bpa.gov
Web page posted by Grant Vincent, gwvincent@bpa.gov