BP-24 Rate Case

CGS Nuclear Decommissioning Trust Fund Public Meeting 

• Time and Location 

• Presentation 

BP-24 Rates Settlement Proposal

In August 2022, BPA paused the BP-24 and TC-24 Workshops to initiate discussions with customers regarding the potential for settlement of the BP-24 and TC-24 proceedings. Based on the progress in the settlement discussions, BPA staff has developed settlement proposals for each proceeding.  The Rates Settlement, which includes proposals for settlement of the FY 2024-2025 ASC Review process, the FY 2022 Power Reserves Distribution Clause (RDC) and the BP-24 rate proceeding, is provided below. The TC-24 Tariff Settlement proposal can be found on the TC-24 Tariff Proceeding webpage.  

• Rates Settlement Agreement (Sept. 21, 2022) (includes Attachment 1, ASC Review Process Settlement Proposal; Attachment 2, 2022 Power RDC Settlement Proposal; and Attachment 3, BP-24 Rates Settlement)

• Attachment A to BP-24 Rates Settlement: FY 2024-2025 Power Rate Schedules and GRSPs (to be provided with the BP-24 Initial Proposal)
• Attachment B to BP-24 Rates Settlement: FY 2024-2025 Transmission, Ancillary and Control Area services Rate Schedules and GRSPs (Sept. 21, 2022)
  
  

Participants in the settlement discussions and other stakeholders were asked to submit their responses to the proposed settlements by noon on October 6.  The majority of responses either supported or did not oppose moving forward with the proposed settlements.  BPA Staff is recommending the adoption of the terms of the proposed settlements in the BP-24 rate proceeding, the FY 2022 Power Reserves Distribution Clause process, the FY 2024-2025 Average System Cost review and the TC-24 Tariff Terms and Conditions proceeding.

Power Models and Datasets

• Public Rate Impacts BP-24 Settlement Proposal
• Instructions on Public Rate Impact Model

Rate Analysis Model for BP-24 Settlement

• RAM2024 Settlement Proposal 

Market Price Forecast

• Market Price Forecast for Initial Proposal

BPA produced the BP-24 Initial Proposal (IP) market price forecast using a production cost model (Aurora¹), and methodologies largely consistent with the BP-22 market price forecast.  The most significant changes in terms of overall, rate-period price impacts relative to our BP-22 forecast are the updated natural gas price forecast and associated gas price risk model. The BP-24 IP forecast includes additional upward price pressure from moderately higher load forecasts as well as modeling Washington’s carbon price policy.  All risk models were updated to include the most recent historical data available, and BPA incorporated Energy Exemplar’s most recent North America data set—with significant modifications to include the latest estimates of current and near-term resource additions and retirements throughout the Western Interconnection. Attached/ posted are csv files of the full distributions of Henry Hub ($/MMBtu, nominal) and Mid-C prices ($/MWh, nominal) for the BP-24 IP.       

¹Aurora is a registered trademark of Energy Exemplar Proprietary Limited (ACN 120 461 716), the software developer.

August 10, 2022

• Time and Location
• Agenda
• NRU-PNGC-UDC Presentation

July 27-28, 2022

• Time and Location
  • Day 1
  • Day 2
• Agenda
• Presentation
  • TC-24 ATC Flowchart
  • TC-24 Draft ATC Attachment C
  • July Day1 Workshop BP-24 Demand Rates
• Workshop Best Practices for Asking Questions
• WebEx Event Instructions for Joining as Participant

July 13, 2022

• Time and Location
• Agenda

June 29, 2022

• Time and Location
• Agenda
• Presentation
  • TC-24 Loss Factor Study Summary
  • TC-22 Loss Factor Study Summary (for comparison purposes only)
  • Historical UIC & FTC Charges
• Workshop Best Practices for Asking Questions
• WebEx Event Instructions for Joining as Participant

June 8, 2022

• Time and Location
• Agenda
• NIPPC Presentation

May 25, 2022

• Time and Location
• Agenda
• Presentation
• Workshop Best Practices for Asking Questions
• WebEx Event Instructions for Joining as Participant

April 27, 2022

• Time and Location
• Agenda
• Presentation
  •  Example Commercial Assessment Report
• Workshop Best Practices for Asking Questions
• WebEx Event Instructions for Joining as Participant

BP-24 Rate Case & TC-24 Tariff Proceeding Workshops - 

Summary of Written Comments Received and BPA's Reponses

• Consolidated Customer Response Document (Updated 7/25/2022)

TC-24 and BP-24 June 29, 2022 Workshop (July 13 Feedback Deadline)

The following were submitted in response to BPA's request for feedback on topics presented at the TC-24 and BP-24 workshop on June 29, 2022.

• Avangrid, Avista, NorthWestern, PacifiCorp, PGE, Puget
• Avista
• AWEC
• NIPPC
• NRU
• PNGC
• PPC
• Puget
• Renewable Northwest
• Seattle
• Shell Energy
• Snohomish
• TransAlta

TC-24 and BP-24 June 8, 2022 Customer-Led Workshop

The following was submitted in response to NIPPC presentation at the TC-24 and BP-24 Customer-Led workshop on June 8, 2022.

• PPC

TC-24 and BP-24 May 25, 2022 Workshop (June 8 Feedback Deadline)

The following were submitted in response to BPA's request for feedback on topics presented at the TC-24 and BP-24 workshop on May 25, 2022.

• Avista, Idaho, M-S-R, NorthWestern, PGE, Puget
• AWEC
• NIPPC
• Powerex

TC-24 and BP-24 April 27, 2022 Workshop (May 11 Feedback Deadline)

The following were submitted in response to BPA's request for feedback on topics presented at the TC-24 and BP-24 workshop on April 27, 2022.

• NIPPC
  •  Department of Energy’s (DOE) comments to FERC on its ANOPR on
    Transmission Planning
• Powerex

Models and Datasets BP-24 Final Proposal

Power Models and Datasets

Public Rate Impacts

• Public Rate Impacts BP-24
• Instructions on Public Rate Impact Model
  
  

Rate Analysis Model for BP-24

• RAM2024

Aurora Input Assumptions and Model Settings

• As described in the Market Price Study and Documentation, BP-24-FS-BPA 04, BPA uses Aurora¹ to produce the BP-24 Final Proposal market price forecast. Aurora has the capability to create an archive of all input assumptions and model settings that are used to produce a forecast. BPA will share the Aurora archive of input assumptions and model settings used to produce the market price forecast with any Party to the rate case that requests it, provided that the Party has an active Aurora license. To request a copy of the archive, please contact Eric Graessley (ewgraessley@bpa.gov).
• The Natural Gas Hub Price Forecast ($/MMBtu, nominal)

¹Aurora is a registered trademark of Energy Exemplar Proprietary Limited (ACN 120 461 716), the software developer. RevSim Model/ The RevSim model collection contains the NSR Model (separated by fiscal year), the 4h10c Calculator, the Transmission Expense Model, and the Risk Measures Report (an output summary file).
RevSim is an R based model for which BPA maintains a parallel Microsoft Excel® 2016 version. This Excel RevSim version (named NSR_Model_FY24 and NSR_Model_FY25) performs identical calculations as the R version and is provided here due to the wide accessibility of the Microsoft Office Suite of products. The workbook is completely self-contained and allows access to every RevSim calculation and input that BPA uses in the calculation of forecast Net Secondary Revenue.
The 4h10c Calculator (4h10c_Calculator_BP20IP) is a Microsoft Excel® 2016 workbook that forecasts BPA’s 4h10c credit for fish mitigation activities. The model is self-contained and encompasses all data and calculations necessary to arrive at BPA’s forecast 4h10c credit.

The Transmission Expense Model (TxExpModel_BP20IP) is a Microsoft Excel® 2016 workbook model that utilizes distributions of data to forecast BPA’s transmission expenses under various conditions. The model is self-contained and encompasses all data and calculations necessary to arrive at BPA’s forecast of transmission expenses.

o NSR Model FY2024
o NSR Model FY2025
o 4h10c Calculator
o Transmission Expense Model
o Risk Measures Report

RSS Model

• RSSModel.BP22PublicExample

Tier 2 Pricing Model

• Tier2PricingModel

TOCAs

• TOCAs (9/22/2023)

TRM Billing Determinants Model

• TRMbd_2024
  
  

Power Revenue Requirement Model

• BP-24 Final Proposal Power Revenue Requirement Model

Transmission Models and Datasets

Customer Impact Model

BPA is not producing a Transmission Customer Impact Model for BP-24. FY 2024-2025 transmission rates are proposed to be held flat at the same levels established in the BP-22 proceeding.  In lieu of a Customer Impact Model, please see the BP-24 Rates Comparison sheet.

Transmission Revenue Requirement Model

• BP-24 Final Proposal Transmission Revenue Requirement Model

 BP-24 Rates Comparison Sheet

• BP-24 Rates Comparison Sheet

Joint Power and Transmission Models and Datasets

The ToolKit

This model is used to assess the effect of risks and risk mitigation tools on Power and Transmission Reserves for Risk and Treasury Payment Probability. The ToolKit model is built in Microsoft Excel®.

• ToolKitXL_BP24FP.zip - This zip contains the ToolKit excel model and three source files needed to run the model.

P-NORM and T-NORM are Microsoft Excel® workbooks with the @RISK® add-in from Palisade Corporation (www.palisade.com). The NORM models can be run or interpreted only on computers with licensed copies of @RISK installed. To run a NORM model, open the file in excel and open @Risk. An @Risk tab should appear in the Excel® menu bar. Click the @Risk tab, set ‘Iterations’ to 3200, ‘Simulations’ to 1 and click ‘Start Simulation’. Results of a simulation used as input for the Toolkit model can be viewed in the ‘Output’ tab.

• P-NORM_BP24_FP_Final.xlsm (P-NORM)
• T-NORM_BP24_FP_Final.xlsx (T-NORM)

BP-24 Rate Proceeding: Administrator's Final Record of Decision and Final Studies and Documentation

Risk Mechanisms

During the FY 2024-25 rate period, power and/or transmission rates may be adjusted each fiscal year in accordance with the respective Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (CRAC), the Reserves Distribution Clause (RDC), and the Financial Reserves Policy (FRP) Surcharge provisions (see Power General Rate Schedule Provisions, sections II.O, II.P, and II.Q, and Transmission General Rate Schedule Provisions, sections II.G, II.H, and II.I).

Power Reserves Distribution Clause (RDC)

The Power RDC has triggered based on FY 2023 end-of-year financial results resulting in a Power RDC Amount of $285.4 million. Please see the Administrator’s letter (Dec 22, 2023) regarding the Power RDC final decision. 

The Administrator has determined the Power RDC Amount will be used for the following purposes:

1)   $165.4 million as a Power dividend distribution (rate credit).

2)   $90 million as flexible debt reduction; and

3)   $30 million designated as Reserves Not for Risk for accelerated fish and wildlife mitigation.

Power Dividend Distribution: The FY 2024 non-Slice rate credit is $4.34 per megawatt-hour for the last 10 months of the fiscal year (equivalent to an annual reduction of $3.64 per megawatt-hour). This would reduce the average non-Slice rate by 10.20% compared to the BP-24 Final Proposal. The Power DD credit rate is calculated in accordance with the BP-24 Power Rate Schedules and General Rate Schedule Provisions (GRSP section II.P.2) and would be used to bill PF and IP customers. The rate would also adjust the December 2023 – September 2024 PF Tier 1 Equivalent energy rates.

• Final FY 2024 Power DD Credit Rate
• Final FY 2024 Power DD Credit Estimates by PF Customer

Transmission Reserves Distribution Clause (RDC)

The Transmission RDC has triggered based on FY 2023 end-of-year financial results resulting in a Transmission RDC Amount of $130.4 million. Please see the Administrator’s letter (Dec 22, 2023) regarding the Transmission RDC final decision. 

The Administrator has determined the Transmission RDC Amount will be used for the following purposes: 

1. $50.4 million will be held as reserves for risk to reflect cost pressures that were not included in the BP-24 IPR process; and
2. $80 million will be used for flexible debt reduction.