BPA releases its third official financial forecast for fiscal year 2026

he Bonneville Power Administration released its third quarter financial forecast for fiscal year 2026.

A high-level overview of the forecast was presented at the Quarterly Business Review on Aug. 13. This forum shares financial results and provides updates on major spending areas like proposed capital projects to provide more visibility on budgets and an opportunity for stakeholder input.

BPA's newly appointed administrator and CEO Travis Kavulla opened the meeting with a summary of Bonneville's third quarter operational performance. Kim Thompson, who became the acting chief financial officer in June, delivered the financial results.

BPA's forecast for end-of-year net revenues has declined since its last financial report in May. Bonneville now expects to end the year $49 million below the target of $509 million, compared to the Q2 forecast of $15 million below target. The primary driver, continuing from the previous quarter, is lower-than-expected Transmission revenues resulting from customers deferring point-to-point transmission service.

Power Services is forecast to end the year above its net revenue target by $38 million, largely due to the $40 million surcharge that triggered at the end of FY 2025 when Power financial reserves fell below the lower threshold of BPA's Financial Reserves Policy. This forecast also reflects the impact of court-ordered spill operations that are reducing the generating capability of the Federal Columbia River Power System. Power's net revenue forecast would be higher absent the court-ordered spill.  

While BPA's key performance indicators for capital expenditures and borrowing authority remain positive, the power marketing administration has raised a cautionary flag for its days cash on hand target. Bonneville expects to end the year with 65 to 97 days cash on hand. While that is above the target of 60 days, the lower range of Power's forecast for days cash falls below the 60-day lower threshold, indicating the potential for triggering a Financial Reserves Policy surcharge.

Additionally, consistent with Q2, BPA's debt-to-asset ratio remains slightly above the FY 2026 target of 79.6%. This result is not surprising, considering BPA's growing capital program. For this reason, as well as liquidity concerns and commitments made in the BP-26 Rate Case settlement, BPA is launching a public process on Aug. 20 to refresh certain financial policies.

View the detailed third quarter financial forecast on bpa.gov under the Quarterly Business Review page.