Models and Datasets BP-24 Initial Proposal
Power Models and Datasets
Public Rate Impacts
Rate Analysis Model for BP-24
Aurora Input Assumptions and Model Settings
- As described in the Market Price Study and Documentation, BP-24-E-BPA 04, BPA uses Aurora1 to produce the BP-24 Initial Proposal market price forecast. Aurora has the capability to create an archive of all input assumptions and model settings that are used to produce a forecast. BPA will share the Aurora archive of input assumptions and model settings used to produce the market price forecast with any Party to the rate case that requests it, provided that the Party has an active Aurora license. To request a copy of the archive, please contact Eric Graessley (ewgraessley@bpa.gov).
- The Natural Gas Hub Price Forecast ($/MMBtu, nominal)
1Aurora is a registered trademark of Energy Exemplar Proprietary Limited (ACN 120 461 716), the software developer. RevSim Model/ The RevSim model collection contains the NSR Model (separated by fiscal year), the 4h10c Calculator, the Transmission Expense Model, and the Risk Measures Report (an output summary file).
RevSim is an R based model for which BPA maintains a parallel Microsoft Excel® 2016 version. This Excel RevSim version (named NSR_Model_FY24 and NSR_Model_FY25) performs identical calculations as the R version and is provided here due to the wide accessibility of the Microsoft Office Suite of products. The workbook is completely self-contained and allows access to every RevSim calculation and input that BPA uses in the calculation of forecast Net Secondary Revenue.
The 4h10c Calculator (4h10c_Calculator_BP20IP) is a Microsoft Excel® 2016 workbook that forecasts BPA’s 4h10c credit for fish mitigation activities. The model is self-contained and encompasses all data and calculations necessary to arrive at BPA’s forecast 4h10c credit.
The Transmission Expense Model (TxExpModel_BP20IP) is a Microsoft Excel® 2016 workbook model that utilizes distributions of data to forecast BPA’s transmission expenses under various conditions. The model is self-contained and encompasses all data and calculations necessary to arrive at BPA’s forecast of transmission expenses.
o NSR Model FY2024
o NSR Model FY2025
o 4h10c Calculator
o Transmission Expense Model
o Risk Measures Report
RSS Model
Tier 2 Pricing Model
TOCAs
TRM Billing Determinants Model
Power Revenue Requirement Model
Transmission Models and Datasets
Customer Impact Model
BPA is not producing a Transmission Customer Impact Model for BP-24. FY 2024-2025 transmission rates are proposed to be held flat at the same levels established in the BP-22 proceeding.
Transmission Revenue Requirement Model
Joint Power and Transmission Models and Datasets
The ToolKit
This model is used to assess the effect of risks and risk mitigation tools on Power and Transmission Reserves for Risk and Treasury Payment Probability. The ToolKit model is built in Microsoft Excel®.
- ToolKitXL_BP24IP.zip - This zip contains the ToolKit excel model and three source files needed to run the model.
P-NORM and T-NORM are Microsoft Excel® workbooks with the @RISK® add-in from Palisade Corporation (www.palisade.com). The NORM models can be run or interpreted only on computers with licensed copies of @RISK installed. To run a NORM model, open the file in excel and open @Risk. An @Risk tab should appear in the Excel® menu bar. Click the @Risk tab, set ‘Iterations’ to 3200, ‘Simulations’ to 1 and click ‘Start Simulation’. Results of a simulation used as input for the Toolkit model can be viewed in the ‘Output’ tab.
