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​Our Analytical Approach

Since 2009, BPA has performed market analysis to quantify Momentum Savings, which are defined as all energy efficiency occurring above the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s Power Plan baseline that are not directly reported by utilities and not part of the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance’s Net Market Effects.

Accounting for one-third of BPA’s regional energy savings goals for 2016-2021, Momentum Savings are a significant portion of BPA’s total resource portfolio. To date, BPA has captured regional Momentum Savings from the residential and non-residential lighting markets, residential HVAC, and federal appliance standards.

Over the next five years (2016-2021), BPA aims to expand our existing analysis to comprehensively track changes in total Northwest energy consumption for six key markets. These markets represent 41% of the region’s energy use and are undergoing market changes that impact energy consumption: 1) non-residential lighting, 2) residential lighting, 3) residential HVAC, 4) commercial HVAC, 5) data centers, and 6) residential water heating.

Quantifying Momentum Savings is more than meeting the energy-efficiency target. BPA is trying to understand how energy efficiency is changing the power grid. Through its research, the team collects rich information on how much energy efficiency is happening in the total market, which is used by BPA and the Council to help plan for future generation and capacity needs.

BPA’s market analysis is grounded in a consistent analytical framework that we use for any market we study. We build market models using both Microsoft Excel and Analytica. These models track changes over time in energy consumption, sales trends, stock turnover, energy savings, baselines, and other market trends.

To ensure robust and accurate results, BPA goes through a rigorous external review process with the Regional Technical Forum’s Market Analysis Subcommittee. Members of this subcommittee are independent industry experts that provide critical feedback to help shape our methods and thoroughly vet the results.